Overview
A recent study, spearheaded by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) with additional contributions from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research, projects a substantial expansion of the area affected by wildfires across Europe. This projected increase is attributed to increasingly hot, dry, and windy conditions linked to climate change. The research quantifies potential land area changes under distinct emissions trajectories through the end of the current century.
Findings
The study calculates specific increases in the annual burned land area for Europe under two defined emissions scenarios:
- Under a low-emissions scenario, identified as SSP1-2.6, researchers estimate an increase of approximately 39% in burned land per year by the century's end, relative to the current average.
- In a high-emissions scenario, designated as SSP3-7.0, the calculation indicates an increase of roughly 192% in burned land per year by the century's end, also compared to today's average.
This suggests that, under the high-emissions pathway, the land area impacted by wildfires could almost triple.
Research Context
The study directly addresses the potential impact of climate change on wildfire prevalence in Europe. It frames the increasingly hot, dry, and windy conditions as primary drivers for a substantial extension of wildfire-affected areas. The work is a collaborative effort, with leadership from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and input from the Senckenberg Society for Nature Research.